A sigh of relief, and current food security in Niger

Estimated food security conditions, 4th Quarter 2008 (October-December)
US AID /Famine Early Warning Systems

Green: Generally food secure
Yellow: Moderately Food Insecure
Orange: Highly Food Insecure
Red: Extremely Food Insecure
Black: Famine
Gray: No Data

(My village is in the "yellow zone" on this map)


8/19/08 What "moderately insecure" actually feels like:

IT RAINED! Finally! After three long weeks of not-a-drop, after which the millet had gone brittle and yellow and slouchy in the fields, the sky finally filled with cloudy water balloons that popped above us. Mun gode Allah! Thank god! Sunday morning at 4 AM--wait it was Monday-- wind and splatter drops woke me and brought me indoors, where I sat and listened to the downpour begin. It is fabulous news, the best thing for farmers far and wide--everyone is talking about it, and praising God and smiling skywards. We got a good soaking! And then, not two hours later, another storm came through. So there is a sigh of relief shared by the thousand or so of us in town.
My roof is a little more waterproof since Ayuba and Shaibu fixed it up, but it still leaks in several spots, so I'm getting good at timing when I need to move and/or empty water buckets, pots, and cups that I rotate from drop to drop. One way you can gauge how hard it rained is by the number of household articles set out to dry in the sun the next day: clothes, mats, mattresses. This morning all of the contents of Narba's little hut were strewn about her concession! And yet no one complains because the blessing of rain for the harvest trumps all, even the caving in of mud walls and huts that I saw this afternoon.

Current food situation in Niger: the official word

The map below (from AID sources) illustrates some of the text beneath it (info recently sent to Peace Corps volunteers). 700,000 people may need food aid this year (see #7), which makes it a good year; last year the figure was 2.9 million people in need of aid.
Points #4, #9, #10, and #11 seem especially worrisome.

Estimated food security conditions, 3rd Quarter 2008 (July-September)
US AID /Famine Early Warning Systems

Green: Generally Food Secure
Yellow: Moderately Food Insecure
Orange Highly Food Insecure
Red: Extremely Food Insecure
Black: Famine
Gray: No Data

NIGER FOOD SITUATION LOOKS GOOD, BUT NUTRITIONAL ISSUES PERSIST

1. Summary. All signs indicate that Niger will have a bumper annual harvest of major food staples in September-October 2008,representing an unprecedented fourth consecutive good annual harvest for Niger. Pasture conditions are excellent and no major outbreaks of crop pests have been reported. Crop conditions in Nigeria and other countries in the sub-region also appear to be favorable; therefore, added pressures on Niger food stocks will be minimal.
Niger will not need any emergency food aid over the coming year, but will need help to reconstitute its national food reserves and to continue programs to address food needs of vulnerable groups and chronic child malnutrition. There will also be a need to address the problem of insufficient imported rice for urban consumers.

2. The rainy season has generally been exceptional and, even if rains stopped now, there is enough moisture in the soil in most areas to permit a good harvest of the major food staples (millet, sorghum and cowpeas). If like last year the rains cease in mid-September, the harvest will still be better than the good 2007 harvest. If like in 2006 the rains continue into early October, Niger could have a record harvest. On the other hand, too much rain and continued heavy rainfall will make it difficult to harvest. Already the harvest of millet and sorghum is occurring in a number of places across Niger.

3. Flooding in some areas has caused some crop damage and, as of the end August 2008, the loss of shelter for almost 40,000 people. Pasture conditions throughout Niger are reported as excellent without any major outbreak of crop pests. Niger appears to be on the path to a fourth consecutive good annual harvest. This may be the first time in modern history that Niger has enjoyed four good annual harvests in a row. These good harvests and livestock conditions will make life better for rural inhabitants (85 percent of the population), contribute positively to Niger's GDP growth, and reduce budgetary and political stress on the Government of Niger (GON). Furthermore, full household granaries are the best insurance for the maintenance of peace and stability in the rural zones.

4. The food situation of urban inhabitants, who depend heavily on the consumption of imported rice, is, however, worrisome. The cost of imported rice on the open market is at a record high and stocks of rice are at an all-time low. The GON tried to procure on the international market 10,000 megatons (MT) of rice but was only able to obtain 3,000 MT, which it is selling at a subsidized price (35 percent less than market price) during the holy month of Ramadan that began September 1. Given that Niger consumes about 20,000 MT of rice per month, this is a relatively small quantity of rice. It is an open and troublesome question as to how Niger will obtain enough rice in the coming months to feed its urban population.

5. Related to this rice shortage problem was the receipt on July 21 of an official request from the GON for 60,000 MT of rice and 15,000 MT of wheat over a three-year period, beginning this year. This request was made within the framework of the USDA's Food for Progress program. This request follows the signing of an agreement in September 2006 for the same kind of program. Under this previous Food for Progress program, 12,000 MT of sorghum and 5,000 MT of rice (for monetization) were provided. The 12,000 MT of sorghum was used over the past few months for free distribution to the most vulnerable groups. The 5,000 MT of rice was sold to private traders over a year ago and the proceeds generated are being used for food security activities. Concerned GON authorities will need to satisfy some outstanding reporting and accountability requirements for USDA before tackling another USDA program.

6. It was planned that some rice be provided by the end of the year under three new PL 480, Title II Multi-Year Assistance Programs (MYAPs) that USAID signed in August 2008 with participating U.S. non-governmental organizations. These three- to five-year MYAPs have an estimated value of over US$70 million and cover all regions
of Niger. The main commodity to be monetized under the MYAPs is rice and 7,000 to 9,000 MT of rice were to be shipped to Niger by December, but the first effort to procure rice was has not been successful as not enough rice could be sourced. It is still uncertain when rice will be available for these MYAPs and, when sourced, how much can be procured with existing budgets. Higher rice prices will mean lower quantities of rice for the MYAP programs and it may be some time before FY 2009 funding is available for these programs.

7. Notwithstanding the favorable prospects for good annual harvest in Niger, there remain pockets of low rainfall in Niger and agricultural production growth has difficulty keeping up with Niger's fast annual population growth rate of 3.4 percent (or about 400,000 additional people per year to feed). Niger is reaching the limits of the quantity of food it can produce and in the future, even in a good rainfall year, it will not be able to produce enough to feed its population. Current projections show that up to 700,000 Nigeriens (about 5 percent of Niger's 14 million people) will need food aid to one degree or another over the coming year because of poor harvests in some geographic areas. Nevertheless, this is a huge improvement over last year when 2.9 million people were estimated to be in need of food aid.

8. As of August 27, 2008, Niger's national food reserves contained about 40,000 MT of cereals (down from 77,000 MT last February). If current reserve utilization plans are adhered to, this total stock level will fall to about 3,000 MT by the end of September. In the July to September period, 15,000 MT has been utilized by the GON, with donor concurrence, for free distribution to food vulnerable groups and 15,000 for sale at subsidized prices to those in need. The GON goal is to have 100,000 MT in stock in case of poor annual harvest and, thus, its plan is to begin local purchases of cereals
in October following the harvest to reconstitute its food reserves. It plans to buy on the local market 20,000 MT to 30,000 MT of millet and sorghum in the October 2008 to March 2009 period. Currently, the GON does not have sufficient funds to make these purchases and it will be calling for donor contributions for as much as US$12 million in additional funding for these purchases. These reserves are small compared to Niger's cereals consumption rate of 220,000 MT per month.

9. Niger's child malnutrition levels remains among the worst in the world in spite of four good annual harvests in a row. Niger’s low child nutrition levels are not unrelated to a persistent high poverty levels and a consistent rank among the lowest five countries on the UNDP human development index (HDI). Child feeding practices, including breast-feeding, and dietary diversification need much improvement. A challenge to progress in these areas is low female literacy rate of less than 15 percent.

10. Other sobering development statistics for Niger include facts such as 40 percent of its children are stunted and almost 70 percent of the population is less than 25 years of age. The youthful structure of Niger's population and its fast population growth rate represent daunting development challenges. The population growth rate is out-stripping advances in economic and development growth and will not change unless the high average fertility rate of 7.4 children per woman of child-bearing age is substantially lowered.

11. Nutritional surveys led by UNICEF in the June-July period indicate some slight improvements in child nutrition levels among children under five years of age, but global acute malnutrition (GAM) remains alarmingly high by international standards and in this recent survey the overall average GAM reported was 10.7 percent (versus 11.2 percent a year ago). Extrapolation of survey data indicates that over 260,000 children of this age group suffer from much higher levels of malnutrition. Most alarming are survey results for the Region of Zinder that show an emergency level GAM rate of 15.7 percent. The survey also reports GAM rates much higher for children under three years of age. Also, in the regions of Diffa and Zinder the child mortality rate was over the emergency rate of 2 deaths per 10,000 children per day. This survey also reported that only 4.4 percent of mothers are exclusively breast-feeding their babies during the first six months.

12. Comment. Nothing can be better for Niger and its people than a good harvest, but a good harvest alone does not eliminate hunger and malnutrition nor develop over the long term a country. Much investment is needed in Niger's rural infrastructure and agricultural sector to achieve the food production and household income increases Niger needs to feed its people and to improve its rank on the UNDP HDI list. Investment in irrigation schemes that make Niger more drought proof and less dependent on rainfed agriculture is essential. At the same time more diversified ways of creating wealth need to be found to benefit a much larger segment of the population. As long as the vast majority of Nigeriens remain dependent on subsistence agriculture, sustainable development advances will remain elusive. The main
development aims should target less hunger and higher incomes. High levels of good governance, technical competency, managerial capacity and stability are needed to achieve those aims. ##

Niamey, September 3, 2008

For an update on this post, go here.

Food crisis: Part III

Moringa oleifera

So that brings us back to the pagivolte. There are things that I think could certainly help improve the food security of villagers here, and possibly also of city dwellers. We gave the following suggestions:
1. Try saving-or just not spending- a small amount of money (the equivalent of 50 US cents) each week, so that you can cover the increased price of food. Or try joining a money-saving cooperative; lots of villagers do this: everyone puts in a small bit of money each week, and every few weeks one family gets all of it.
2. Plant moringa in gardens. This is a small tree whose leaves grow fast and are packed with vitamins. It tastes a lot like spinach.
3. Plant vegetables. (Again, not a lot of people do this, but a few do. We'll see.)
4. If you can afford a baby sheep or goat, buy it now to sell for profit later. It's true: livestock here is like banks in America. You invest your money in a sheep and then sell it after Ramadan when people are celebrating the end of their fasts.

Yep. That was what our pagivolte was about. The women were pretty funny--they thought we were very entertaining. They may have taken something to heart; I'm not sure. Deep down, I don't see why they would. We don't know what they go through every year; surely they have strategies for feeding their families. They're here! They've always been here! But then why don't more of them do those things on the list? What do they know that they don't tell us, that they conceal behind their laughter and amusement with us? That's the real question; the facts are that they know about living here, that I don't, and that whatever they do to curb hunger and malnutrition is just enough to make it, even if it means relying on a few bags of millet brought by foreign aid which will not be coming this year. It is infuriating; it is amazing; it is frightening; it is risky; it is brave; it is trusting...and if it means that another 20% of the babies in the country die before their 5th birthday this year, then there is a lot of work to do.

I don't know what my role is in all of this, but I'm here, and I tell you what, I will do what I can...to start, when I get to my village tomorrow, I'm going to plant my moringa saplings in my concession, and start mixing some cow poop into the sand to grow a garden. Yeah! TAKE THAT, FOOD CRISIS!

Wow, well I got pretty intense just then. And now I'm sweating even more, and the sun found me again, and bleached out my shade. So it's time to move on.

Food crisis: Part II

Millet field (photo from FAO)

I guess you have to realize that here people live hand to mouth, and even in the most optimistic of years, that fragile method doesn't change much. Think about my village: it's hot, there's no electricity: how could you possibly even store food for any period of time? It rots. I've had cabbages spoil in a day. So, to a certain extent, it is not as if you can stock up. Canned food, even boxed food is prohibitively expensive; to think that a family could afford even one meal of packaged food is unrealistic. That leaves you with whatever grain (millet, sorghum) or bean, or vegetable, that you can grow on your field, and whatever milk or meat you can get from your cows, goats, and sheep. And whatever food aid comes from abroad. I've only seen "my" villagers eat vegetables once, at a huge birth/naming celebration put on by the headmaster of the school; he has much more money than most. With the exception of onions and the occasional powdered tomato and okra that they put in sauces, people don't eat many veggies. (This might change here: working on it!)

Can you imagine doing one giant shopping trip to feed your whole family for a year? Now try changing that from a shopping trip to the planting of a millet field. That is what the villagers are working on right now. They are praying for rain, so they can plant millet in their fields, so that in three months they can hopefully harvest enough to pull their families through until next year's harvest. If that's not thinking ahead, what is?

Let's hope that people at least get a good harvest this year. Learning about the politics/environmental setting of all of this helps me to understand why it is that some farmers may seem "stubborn" to try out new methods: why make an already risky situation even more so?

Food crisis: a pagivolte

6/2/08
One of the letters you sent, mom, was written on the back of some text you'd printed off of a PCV's blog-I think her name is Brittany-about the current food crisis. She's an excellent writer, and what she said is exactly what I've heard. She's been here longer, though, and I think she knows a lot more about it than I do.
We talked about it a little bit at training last week, and along with three friends I designed a pagivolte presentation for it...I think that's a French word. It means that you use large drawings or photographs to illustrate/educate/raise awareness about a given topic. It's a fun way to share information with anyone, and it works well with non-literate groups. Peace Corps uses them a lot in Niger, as do several other aid/development agencies. I've seen pagivoltes on the importance of handwashing, breastfeeding, how to how to build an improved cook stove, why/how to plant trees in your field. Usually they're the size of a big kid's book, with 6-12 different pages, and big, easily interpreted images. I love pagivoltes; it's fun to present them, which you basically do by asking your audience lots of questions about what they see. Often they create stories about the "characters" giving them all names and personalities.
So anyway, Jacob, Chrystal, John, and I presented a pagivolte we created about the upcoming/current food crisis while we were in Hamdallay. We did it for John's host family: there are three wives and a bunch of neighbor women there often, so it was an enthusiastic audience. We tried to accomplish two things:
1. To explain how this year's food shortage is different from most years (keep in mind, ye of the land of milk and honey, that Nigeriens have food shortages on a yearly basis, and in fact, nonchalantly refer to that time of year as Hunger Season; it is that much a part of their lives)
2. To make a few suggestions on ways to lesson the impact (acknowledging full well that Nigeriens already have a great ability and know-how as to how to do this)

I will share as much as I know about what is going on, globally and in NIger; please excuse any errors, and please correct me if you know the greater details. Basically, my understanding is that:
A. Rice consumption in China and India is at an all-time high.
B. More corn is being directed to the production of biofuel.
C. Oil prices are, of course, rising and rising and rising.
These things combined mean the following things for NIger:
1. Food is REALLY expensive right now, and will continue to go up in price, due partially to the increased price of transportation, and partially because of the high global demand for rice/corn/cereals (especially in China, India, and because of biofuels processors.)
2. The world aid organizations that routinely come to NIger to distribute emergency food bags (usually rice and millet) will not be able to come this year; I presume because they can't afford/find the food, either.
3. SO, even if this year's harvest is spectacular, many Nigeriens will be hungry.

We have heard that it will be in urban areas that food shortages will be felt first. This makes sense; urban residents buy more of their foodstuffs, whereas rural residents grow more of their own. Still I wonder...in Angie's village, a very small rural community of just a few hundred folks, people are already "skipping" meals to make their food last. One PCV told me about how a year ago she was astonished when a kid, her friend, revealed that "today we won't eat but tomorrow we will." Skipping a day of eating, not out of a desire to be stick thin, not as a spiritual cleansing practice...but because there's only X amount of food, and it's got to last until harvest time. It's hard to wrap my head around that, and I am here, so I can't imagine how you would begin to understand it from home.